March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.56%) are up +0.49% and European stocks are up +1.35% on speculation that the ECB on Thursday will deliver a package of easing measures to spur economic growth. Energy and raw-material producing stocks are higher as the price of crude oil and copper rose. Crude oil had initially moved lower after the API late yesterday reported a +4.4 million bbl increase in U.S. crude inventories. However, crude recovered losses and is up +1.53% on the outlook for lower future U.S. crude production after the EIA cut its U.S. 2017 crude output forecast. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -0.08%, China -1.34%, Taiwan -0.35%, Australia +0.96%, Singapore +1.14%, South Korea +0.29%, India +0.55%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is up +0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.33%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -010% at a 1-week low.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.27%) are down -11.5 ticks.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that U.S. 2017 crude production will fall -5.5% y/y to 8.19 million bpd, less than the 8.46 million bpd previously forecast and a 4-year low.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.8% with purchase sub-index -0.6% and refi sub-index -7.2%), (2) Jan wholesale inventories (expected -0.2%, Dec -0.1% m/m) and Jan wholesale trade sales (expected -0.3% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m), (3) the Treasury's auction of $20 billion of 10-year T-notes, (4) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, and (5) USDA Mar WASDE crop production.

There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Tahoe Resources (consensus $0.12), Square Inc (-0.14).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: KLR Acquisition Group (KLREU)

Equity conferences this week include: Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology Symposium on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Inc Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu.




CBS Corp. (CBS -1.58%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities.

Yelp (YELP -4.74%) and Groupon (GRPN -3.78%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.

United Continental Holdings (UAL -2.20%) reported February traffic was up +2.7% and available seat miles were up +6%, but still sees Q1 passenger unit revenue down 6%-8% y/y due to a stronger dollar, lower surcharges, and softening domestic and international yields.

Ross Stores (ROST -0.26%) were downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -1.69%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it said it closed a store in Billerica, Massachusetts for cleaning after 4 workers at the store "were not feeling well."

Aerovironment (AVAV -0.30%) climbed over 7% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on yearly gross profit margin to between 38%-39.5%, up from a December forecast of 37%-37.5%.

Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF -4.72%) surged over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 14 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to 72 cents-74 cents, higher than consensus of 70 cents.

NCI Building Systems (NCS -3.45%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, well above consensus of 2 cents, as Q1 sales rose to $370 million, above consensus of $363.8 million.

Amplify Snack Brands (BETR -1.60%) jumped over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, higher than consensus of 9 cents and then raised guidance on 2016 adjusted EPS to 61 cents-64 cents, above consensus of 57 cents.

Zagg Inc. (ZAGG -1.42%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 GAAP EPS of 18 cents, weaker than consensus of 24 cents.

Cerus Corp. (CERS -5.51%) slid over 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2016 global revenue of $37 million-$40 million, below consensus of $44.5 million.


Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.56%) this morning are up +9.75 points (+0.49%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.12%, Dow Jones -0.64%, Nasdaq -0.88%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on concern that a slowdown in China will undercut global economic growth after China Feb exports fell -25.4%y/y, weaker than expectations of -14.5% y/y and the largest decline in 6-3/4 years. In addition, energy and commodity producers showed weakness after the price of crude oil and copper fell.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.27%) this morning are down -11.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 +18.50, FVM6 +11.25. Jun T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks. T-notes also received a boost from Japanese government bonds where the 10-year JGB bond yield fell to a record low of -0.10%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is up +0.163 (+0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0036 (-0.33%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.11 (-0.10%) at a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.138 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.0003 (-0.03%), USD/JPY -0.84 (-0.74%). The dollar index on Tuesday recovered from a 2-week low and closed higher on weakness in EUR/USD on the outlook for the ECB to expand stimulus when it meets on Thursday. The dollar also received a boost from weakness in GBP/USD after BOE official Weale said that if the outlook for inflation worsens, "the scope for further asset purchases is substantial."

Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +1.78%) this morning is up +56 cents (+1.53%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +2.02%) is up +0.0318 (+2.29%). Tuesday's closes: CLJ6 -1.40 (-3.69%), RBJ6 -0.0049 (-0.35%). Apr crude and gasoline on Tuesday closed lower on concern that a slowdown in China's economy will lead to slower global growth and energy demand after China Feb exports fell by the most in 6-3/4 years. Crude oil prices were also undercut by expectations that Wednesday's EIA data will show U.S crude supplies rose +3.5 million bbl. Crude oil prices found some underlying support on news that Chinese Feb crude oil imports rose +19% m/m to 31.8 MMT.

US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.8% with purchase sub-index -0.6% and refi sub-index -7.2%.
1000 ETJan wholesale inventories expected -0.2%, Dec -0.1% m/m. Jan wholesale trade sales expected -0.3% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1200 ETUSDA Mar WASDE crop production.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $20 billion 10-year T-notes.
JPN0100 ETJapan Feb machine tool orders, Jan -17.2% y/y.
1850 ETJapan Feb PPI expected -0.3% m/m and -3.4% y/y, Jan -0.9% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Jan industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and unch y/y, Dec -1.1% m/m and -0.4% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jan manufacturing production expected +0.2% m/m and -0.7% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
1901 ETUK Feb RICS house price balance expected 50%, Jan 49%.
CHI2030 ETChina Feb CPI expected +1.8% y/y, Jan +1.8% y/y. Feb PPI expected -4.9% y/y, Jan -5.3% y/y.
n/aChina Feb new yuan loans expected +1.2 trillion yuan, Jan +2.51 trillion yuan. Feb aggregate financing expected +1.790 trillion yuan, Jan +3.417 trillion yuan.
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Analog Devices IncADI US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Tyco International PlcTYC US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Whole Foods Market IncWFM US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Danaher CorpDHR US17:00ITC Decision Due in Instradent vs. Danaher Corp. Patent Case
Square IncSQ US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Tahoe Resources IncTHO CNAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.122
Square IncSQ USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.137