March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.46%) are down -0.47% and European stocks are down -1.33% as they track crude oil prices lower. Mar WTI crude oil is down -1.92% on concern that oversupply of crude will persist after EIA data yesterday showed U.S. crude stockpiles expanded to 504 million bbl, the highest since weekly data began in 1982 and in monthly data going back to 1930. Weakness in European insurance companies are leading European stocks lower, led by a -1.5% decline in Allianz SE, after it reported weaker-than-expected quarterly profits. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.42%, Hong Kong-0.40%, China -0.10%, Taiwan +0.12%, Australia -0.79%, Singapore -0.03%, South Korea +0.23%, India +0.25%.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.37%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.26%) are up +10 ticks.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said late yesterday that "the economy is actually done fine" and he sees a gradual U.S. rate hike path as the "best course." He added that while the Fed has tools to deal with an economic downturn including negative interest rates, he doesn't expect that it will have to use them.


Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's speech at a breakfast meeting on the economic outlook at the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, FL, and (2) Jan CPI (expected -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Dec -0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y) and Jan CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y).

There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Deere (consensus $0.71), Cabot Oil (-0.04), Pinnacle West Capital (0.26), Ameren (0.15), VF Corp (1.01), PSEG (0.50).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.


Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.46%) this morning are down -9.00 points (-0.47%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.47%, Dow Jones -0.25%, Nasdaq -1.13%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed lower on the OECD's cut in its 2016 global GDP forecast to 3.0% from a Nov projection of 3.3% and on weakness in energy producers after crude oil prices fell back from a 2-week high. Stocks received some support from the unexpected -7,000 decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to a 2-1/2 month low of 262,000, better than expectations of +6,000 to 275,000.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 +0.26%) this morning are up +10 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYH6 +15.50, FVH6 +7.50. Mar T-notes on Thursday closed higher on increase safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks and on global growth concerns after the OECD cut its 2016 global GDP estimate.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.059 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0005 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.42 (-0.37%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.165 (+0.17%), EUR/USD -0.0021 (-0.19%), USD/JPY -0.86 (-0.75%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher on signs of U.S. labor market strength after weekly initial jobless claims fell to a 2-1/2 month low and on weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 2-week low on speculation the ECB may boost stimulus measures after the minutes of Jan 21 ECB meeting showed policy makers were concerned about global risks to the economic outlook.

Mar WTI crude (CLH16 -2.34%) this morning is down -59 cents (-1.92%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 -1.18%) is down -0.0084 (-0.86%). Thursday's closes: CLH6 +0.11 (+0.36%), RBH6 -0.0310 (-3.09%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Thursday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were undercut by the +2.147 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to a record high 504.1 million bbl and by the +36,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to a record high 64.7 million bbl. Crude oil prices were supported by the -0.6% decline in U.S. crude production in the week ended Feb 12 to 9.135 million bpd, a 3-1/2 month low, and by the unexpected fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 2-1/2 month low, a sign of labor market strength that benefits economic growth and energy demand.

US0830 ETCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at a breakfast meeting on the economic outlook at the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, FL.
0830 ETJan CPI expected -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Dec -0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y. Jan CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1500 ETUSDA Jan Cattle on Feed.
JPN0030 ETJapan Jan nationwide department store sales, Dec +2.2% y/y.
GER0200 ETGerman Jan PPI expected -0.3% m/m and -2.0% y/y, Dec -0.5% m/m and -2.3% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Jan retail sales ex auto fuel expected +0.7% m/m and +3.4% y/y, Dec -0.9% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jan retail sales including auto fuel expected +0.8% m/m and +3.6% y/y, Dec -1.0% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jan public sector net borrowing expected -13.9 billion pounds, Dec 6.9 billion pounds.
EUR1000 ETEurozone Feb consumer confidence expected -0.3 to -6.6, Jan -0.6 to -6.3.

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Cabot Oil & Gas CorpCOG USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.039
Deere & CoDE USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.708
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.256
Ameren CorpAEE USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.154
VF CorpVFC US6:55Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.009
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US7:30Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.498
VF CorpVFC US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Cabot Oil & Gas CorpCOG US9:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Deere & CoDE US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Ameren CorpAEE US10:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
KLA-Tencor CorpKLAC US11:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2016
Flowserve CorpFLS US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Lam Research CorpLRCX US11:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote