Topic: Stock Price Movements — Technical Analysis
Jan. 7 2016, 10:37 AM ET
- by VF member vanmeerten (903 )
There is no Rally coming soon - --
Now that I have your attention let me say that I have enjoyed the openness of discussion and the honest way MOST of you share information but I think I have found a little glitch in the system.
First what I want to share:
I do not think anyone can predict the market. There are no crystal balls, holy sages of prophecy and no totally reliable predictors. I am a momentum investor and not a day trader or speculator. Back in school I hated math but loved word problems that involved math and in college got fascinated with statistics. I tried to somehow master the predictive value in numbers and have spent the last 51 years trying to unwrap the best predictive stock market indicators. Lately I've wrapped my self in books like The Outliers, Big Data and Predictive Analytics and the more I read the more I get confused.
I follow trends - I am not a cup, head and shoulders or candlestick kind of technical investor nor do I read tea leaves or astrological signs. In the long run those "techniques" have failed me.
I do however watch simple moving averages. My simple goal is to buy quality stocks trading above their moving averages, sell stocks that are trending below their moving averages. I try to be in bull markets and out of bear markets, again knowing I am a failure of predicting trends but as long as I'm following the 5, 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages of both individual stocks and the broad market indices I do all right.
It won't work for a lot of you or it is just not your particular cup of tea but that's OK and you can continue to invest your way, I will be respectful of your comments and I will do my thing and you can do yours and the earth will still revolve around the sun.
I think everyone should be an informed participant of this site, so now I will get to the glitch I have found in the system. Having only positive comments is not a sign that the person posting is correct. I post more than I comment so in the past I did not notice this glitch in the system. The have been a few popular posters who have been very vocal of my posts and sometimes, a little bit out of line but I have a thick skin and let it go. Recently, I decided to start reading their posts to see what I may be missing. I finally got nerve enough to post a comment on their postings and found they had blocked me from commenting on their posts.
So this is the glitch: Just because you notice that some of the more popular posters never seem to have negative comments does not mean that we all agree them and worship them for their wisdom, A few, not all just a few, only have positive comments, because they block those people who have opposing views from posting opposing comments.
To become a better investor you need to read a lot of opinions but also use the old trust but verify method. Do not follow any poster blindly just because the comments to their posts all seem to be positive.
I will continue to follow not predict the trends and if you ever see me try to predict anything, question me immediately and ask me to share my thought processes,
And please if you don't agree with someone's post, respectfully ask them to explain their assumptions and thought processes and hope they don't block and ignore you.
I wish you all health, wealth and the time to enjoy them both.