Topic: Stock Price Movements — Technical Analysis
Jul. 7 2015, 10:41 AM ET
- by VF member vanmeerten (903 )
The Hell with Greece - What about the BRICs? --
Everyone seems fixated upon what is happening in Greece but totally ignoring what is happening with the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
In terms of Gross Domestic Product look at the rankings from the CIA Fact Book for 2014:
#1 China - $17,630,000,000,000
#2 EU - $17,590,000,000,000
#3 USA - $17,460,000,000,000
#4 India - $7,277,000,000,000
#7 Russia - $3,568,000,000,000
#8 Brazil - $3,073,000,000,000
#53 Greece - $284,300,000,000
What a distant #53 - Percentage of the other counties' GDP:
China - 1.6%
EU - 1.6%
USA - 1.6%
India - 3.9%
Russia - 7.9%
Brazil - 9.2%
If I use the Value Line Index for the US and an ETF's of each country, how far off their recent high are they?:
USA - $VLA - 4.26%
China - MCHI - 22.56%
India - INDA - 7.70%
Russia - ERUS - 36.00
Brazil - EWZ - 42.27%
BRICs - BKF - 14.86%
Greece - GREK - 56.26%
If I graph each of the BRIC ETFs over the last 2 1/2 months the losses look like this:
Only India is holding its own.
If I compare the Value Line Index over the last 2 1/2 months to Greece and the BRICs - The BRICs has lost as much as the Greek ETF even with India beefing up the results:
My Conclusion - Greece is a drop in the bucket. If you want to worry; worry about China, the EU, the USA, India, Russia and Brazil. I am not predicting doom and gloom but I think the best days of the Market are behind us. It appears we've reached the mountain top and there is much more downside potential than upside.
My Advice: Be ready to prune your portfolio of any stock down more than 10% and let the proceeds sit on the side lines until we see what is happening.